The Battle of the Big Apple is four years in the making with the New York Jets and New York Giants fighting over MetLife Stadium bragging rights in the Week 8 odds.
Both teams enter this Sunday non-conference clash off a win. The Giants snapped a four-game skid by dumping Washington at home last weekend while the Jets have had two weeks to let their Week 6 upset win over Philadelphia sink in… enjoying a bye in Week 7.
The NFL odds peg the Jets as 3-point “road” favorites in their own stadium as the G-Men wait on the status of starting QB Daniel Jones, who missed Week 7 and hasn’t been cleared of a neck injury suffered two weeks ago.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this New York City showdown and give my best NFL picks for the Jets vs. Giants on October 29.
Jets vs Giants odds
Jets vs Giants predictions
Before the New York Jets’ loss to the Kansas City Chiefs back in Week 4, reporters asked Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay what he saw from New York’s offense on tape. Gay promptly said, “A team that wants to run the ball,”.
It was a backhanded comment at N.Y.’s sputtering offense with Aaron Rodgers out for the season and Zach Wilson struggling under center. But Gay wasn’t wrong. The Jets do want to run the ball.
Gang Green’s been good when it has. The Jets have been picking up 6.2 yards per carry since that game with Kansas City, ranking third in EPA per handoff and enjoying a success rate of 44.4% per run in that span (seventh best).
Those numbers were helped along by 234 rushing yards against Denver’s abysmal defense, but the Jets do face another bad run stop in the rival New York Giants in Week 8. Big Blue has been bullied on the ground, giving up five yards per carry and sitting at the bottom of most advanced defensive metrics vs. the run.
That has eyes on Jets RB Breece Hall for Sunday’s contest. Hall is coming off a quiet day on the ground against the Eagles, picking up only 39 yards on 12 carries — although he did catch five balls for 54 yards receiving.
Hall will be much more involved this Sunday as the Giants play an aggressive blitz-happy scheme, and the Jets could look to counter with a strong dose of the rushing attack — poking the soft spots of this Wink Martindale defense.
The Giants rank 28th in run stop win rate at ESPN while the Jets are ninth best in run block win rate. That allows Hall to find gaps and pick up speed to bowl over would-be tacklers, which has allowed him to rank tops among NFL running backs in yards after contact at 4.1. He’s rushing for a league-high 6.5 yards per carry and has six runs of 15 yards or more (third most).
His snap counts have climbed since Week 3 after being limited early on in his first games back from a season-ending ACL injury last year. Hall saw 34 snaps vs. Denver and drew a season-high 43 against the Eagles.
Player projections for Hall are promising, with the majority calling for more than 70 yards rushing with a ceiling close to 78. My number comes out to more than 74 rushing yards from the Iowa State standout.
My best bet: Breece Hall Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Jets vs Giants same-game parlay
Hall Over 68.5 Rushing YardsHighest scoring half: 2HUnder 36.5
+600 at bet365
Hall could have a monster day against the Giants’ defense. You have the best YAC running back against a stop unit fifth in missed tackles.
The New York teams rank 32nd and 31st in first-quarter scoring and are Bottom 5 in 1H points per game. If there are any fireworks, it will come after halftime adjustments.
If we’ve learned anything about low totals it’s that you steer into the skid, with Over/Under numbers of 37 points or shorter staying Under 75% of the time since 2020.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jets vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Jets laying a field goal as the designated visitor and that line has dipped to -2.5 at some books as of Thursday morning.
Gang Green is coming off a bye last week following their Week 6 upset of the Eagles. That was the Jets’ second straight win and has them building momentum behind one of the better defenses in the land.
The Giants looked lost through the first six weeks of 2023, but finally showed signs of life against the rival Washington Commanders last week. New York’s aggressive pass rush was able to take advantage of a turnstile Commanders offensive line, recording six sacks, and backup QB Tyrod Taylor passed for 279 yards and two touchdowns in the 14-7 victory as a 3-point home underdog.
My NFL power ratings produced an identical 3-point spread for this game and Covers Consensus is showing 62% of early picks siding with the Jets as we creep toward the weekend. The Giants still have a number of injuries up and down the depth chart.
This New York grudge match really comes down to which defense can impose its will on the other. And that’s why this total is the lowest on the Week 8 board.
Oddsmakers opened the Over/Under at 36 points and there was some play on the Over pushing it up to as high as 37 points at sharper sportsbooks. Covers Consensus is reporting 62% of picks taking the Under on this short number.
The Jets rank 11th in Defensive DVOA overall and have been much stingier since the offense started chipping in the past three games, ranking 10th in EPA allowed per play since Week 4. Gang Green has been very sound against the ground game in 2023, sitting sixth in EPA allowed per handoff, and will take on a Giants offense that ran 21 times with RB Saquon Barkley back in action last Sunday.
As for the G-Men, their defense will continue to throw extra pass rushers at opposing QBs with defensive coordinator Wink Martindale dialing up the blitz on almost 42% of dropbacks (third highest). That pressure has only equaled 11 sacks but Wilson ranks 37th among all QBs versus the blitz at PFF — completing just 62.5% of passes.
