The Carolina Panthers could have the pieces to make a move in the NFC South. That’s a pretty loaded “could”, though.
A deep young defense is the backbone of this team, but questionable coaching, a star running back made of tissue paper, and the curious quarterback case of Baker Mayfield has divided bettors on the Panthers’ potential. At least Carolina’s NFL odds are projecting progress from its five wins in 2021.
Should football bettors keep pounding the point spreads considering this team was the worst bet in the NFC at 5-12 ATS last year? We find out in our Carolina Panthers 2022 betting preview.
Carolina Panthers futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +13,000 |
| To win conference | +6,000 |
| To win division | +1,000 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 6.5 (Under -125) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +500 / No -700 |
Best futures bet: Under 6.5 wins (-125)
The lookahead lines for 2022 have at least three wins in store for Carolina and a number of other games could come down the wire, considering five other contests have spreads parked between +1 and +2.5. If the defense keeps progressing, seven wins is not a pipe dream and might be enough to keep head coach Matt Rhule around.
That said, getting to seven wins requires a lot of those “ifs” and “shoulds”. Like “should” Baker Mayfield not suck. “If” Christian McCaffrey stays healthy. And “should” Rhule not get canned before Halloween.
The Panthers’ standard strength of schedule sits in a tie for 12th, with a nasty middle of the calendar, and while their QB SOS ranks out 20th, it does feature the likes of Tom Brady (twice), Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, and (possibly) Deshaun Watson.
Carolina opened with a season win total of 6 (Under -125) but jumped half a win to 6.5 after the Mayfield trade. While his ceiling is higher than Darnold’s – IMO – is Baker going to single-handedly win a game for the Panthers this season?
Carolina Panthers betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
The Panthers’ stop unit wore thin as 2021 marched on, as the offense sputtered and left the defense to play extra minutes, leading to key injuries, but given even moderate support on the scoreboard, Carolina has one of the most promising young defensive units in the NFL, with rich depth charts on the line and in the secondary. If this unit can continue to mature – along with some nice additions in experience – it will allow bettors to hang with the spread most weeks.
The X-factor will be game-changing plays. The Panthers were declawed when it came to sacks and takeaways last season. They forced only 16 total turnovers and registered 39 sacks despite ranking seventh in pressure rate. Carolina sits 20th in my QB SOS this season and while it does face some elite passers, there are plenty of crappy QBs on the calendar for this secondary to exploit.
What will lose bets: Coaching
What a difference a year makes. I highlighted Carolina’s coaches in its 2021 preview, giving a tip of the cap to Rhule for keeping things competitive in his first season and pumping up Joe Brady’s offense in Year 2. Flash forward, and Brady didn’t even make it out of December while Rhule is the betting favorite to be the first head coach fired in 2022.
There’s plenty of pressure from up high to win, especially after landing Mayfield. And speaking of such, new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo doesn’t hold Mayfield in the highest regard, going back to the 2018 draft. This is Baker’s fifth head coach and fifth OC in five seasons in the pros. If Carolina stumbles out of the blocks, owner David Tepper won’t hesitate to show Rhule the door.
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Carolina Panthers game-by-game odds
The schedule lords did Rhule and Carolina a favor in the first third of the season, with four of the opening five games coming at home, including the most interesting matchup on the Week 1 slate: vs. Cleveland. That Baker Mayfield revenge game has seen some major line movement in the lookahead markets, as Deshaun Watson’s suspension looms large.
In a strange twist, three of the Panthers’ first four foes could be playing without their biggest offensive weapon: Watson likely out for the Browns, Alvin Kamara possibly suspended for the Saints, and DeAndre Hopkins suspended six games for the Cardinals.
Despite that soft opening, Carolina is a favorite in only two games with two pick’ems on the board, depending on the book. That pans out to a projected three wins. There are five other games with spreads of Panthers +2.5 or shorter – four of which come at home. Carolina is a dismal 4-12 SU and ATS as a host under Rhule, including 2-6 SU/ATS inside Bank of America Stadium last season.
| 1 | vs. Cleveland | +1 | 42 |
| 2 | @ N.Y Giants | PK | 42.5 |
| 3 | vs. New Orleans | +2.5 | 41 |
| 4 | vs. Arizona | +2.5 | 48.5 |
| 5 | vs. San Francisco | +4 | 43 |
| 6 | @ L.A. Rams | +10 | 46.5 |
| 7 | vs. Tampa Bay | +7 | 48 |
| 8 | @ Atlanta | PK | 44 |
| 9 | @ Cincinnati | +7.5 | 45 |
| 10 | vs. Atlanta | -3.5 | 44 |
| 11 | @ Baltimore | +7 | 43.5 |
| 12 | vs. Denver | +4.5 | 43.5 |
| 13 | BYE | ||
| 14 | @ Seattle | +2.5 | 41.5 |
| 15 | vs. Pittsburgh | +1 | 42 |
| 16 | vs. Detroit | -2.5 | 43.5 |
| 17 | @ Tampa Bay | +10.5 | 48 |
| 18 | @ New Orleans | +5 | 42 |
Carolina Panthers pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
Carolina has an underrated defense and skill position players. If they can just get average play from the quarterback and offensive line, this is a team that could be playing for a Wild Card berth. That is a big IF, however.
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